When Chavez told us his marathon Sunday show was to be cancelled until after the Nov. 23rd vote, this might have been an admission for some that excessive TV time would be “out of place” in the climate of nationwide regional and legislative elections.
The reality is that ditching the logistical complications of the weekly show, which rarely runs for less than 5 hours, has enabled him to better concentrate on zig-zagging around the country for mass rallies in support of grassroots-elected PSUV (United Socialist Party) candidates. So we’ve been treated to what must be close to an average of two appearances daily for Chavez on national TV; typically a caravana (road procession) with 2 hours of pep-talking for the PSUV electoral patrols in each state, and an inauguration/credits handout/graduation ceremony. Every day.
The latter events are often shown (at least in part) on cadena nacional (national chain), where all TV and radio stations must broadcast the same event. The PSUV faithful, knowing how much this grates the opposition, commonly call out to Chavez on the podium at rallies to go on cadena, to which he replies that such events are strictly campaigns and thus subject to electoral laws.
The PSUV electoral machine is the closest thing you’ll get to a military organisation outside of war itself. Or at least, that’s how Chavez (the former paratrooper commander) would like it. Unfortunately for him, many of the patrols have been uncertain as to the exact headcount for their voting station or table, or haven’t made as many campaign phone-calls/visits as expected. This election will be decided by abstention, and Chavez knows his troops need to convince the stragglers, the undecided and apathetic one and all. To this end, a structure of operative patrols, logistal patrols, socialist batallions, socialist brigades and operational commanders (see below) have been organized to carry out the first serious electoral battle in the PSUV’s history.
One of the latest projections indicates a sweep in favour of the PSUV, with this news clip summarising this press conference/slide show, in which North American Opinion Research suggest that the opposition will win just one state of the 23: Nueva Esparta. They also claim support for the PSUV reaches over 60% of the electorate, with all opposition parties combined struggling to attract 20%.
Let’s hope that NAOR has it right. Globo continues to push the victory of Capriles in Miranda with misleading polls based on Sucre, Baruta, El Hatillo and of course Chacao. No polls have been taken by Oscar Schemel in Barlovento, for example. Why? Since for the white opposition the afrovenezuelans do not count for shit as far as they are concerned.
If NAOR is correct, then expect yelps of “fraud” form UNT, PJ and the rest of the pitiyanquis.
Carlos, why don’t you tell your readers that North American Opinion Research Inc. is a murky outfit run be two businessmen from the circle of Chavez ? Why don’t you tell them they have an abysmal record in foretelling the results (e.g. the elections in Peru ?) Why don#t you tell them that almost all other opinion researches show a completely different picture ? Oh I forgot. The intellectual dishonesty.
I didnt check into NAOR’s background, but that was partly because you can’t read so much into such things. For instance if the company is private, you instantly suspect them to be biased against the revolution which is anti-capitalist. But there are exceptions.
And by the way: an “outfit” from the circle of Chavez would do better to make things look more even-handed, so as to get as many Chavistas in the voting lines as possible.
Tell you what, Tom: you find what you believe to be the most accurate polling done by a single outfit across all the 23 states.
We’ll then see whether it turns out to be more accurate than NAOR.
Carlos, PLEASE !!!! NAOR has as only US presence a letterbox in Miami, is run by two Chavez near Venezuelans and has everything else (including the Website) registered in Caracas. In Caracas they share offices with Chavez near companies. Nevertjeless they claim they are an independent US American pollster. PLEASE Carlos, you did NO background check. NO, and I repeat NO serious US company acts like that.
so Carlos what do you really think?
23 state, how many PSUV will win?
Tom, you dont seem to understand that neither a pollster nor its “handler”, if it has one, may have anything to gain by publishing a set of inaccurate polls.
I repeat: tell me which set of polls (covering the 23 states) you believe to be the most accurate. We can then contrast them with NAOR’s in a week’s time.
Zein: I’m going for the PSUV winning 21 states. I think NAOR is mostly accurate but to be on the safe side, I’ll say the opposition might sneak a couple.
Carlos, let me quote Prof. Dr. Manuel Rodriguez Mena (UCV)
“NAOR is an incompetent company or the company manipulates the expression of public opinion.”
and further:
“One of the worst aggressions that can be committed against a society, is to manipulate its social expression. I have the impression that this is not a polling firm, but an unpollster”
A handler of a polling firm *has* to gain a lot Carlos. Why do you think that it is in most countries prohibited to publish results of polls during a certain period before and after the elections ?
Tom: you tell me which polls you are trusting for these elections, or this dialogue ends here.
Carlos – the opposition maintains that since NAOR is somehow “close” to the governemnt, then the polls predicting that the PSUV will win all the states except for one are just propaganda.
They never turn around and question Hinterlaces, Datanalisis, Consultores 21, Mercanalisis or any of their pollsters who are still close to the golpistas. Could it be that these companies are also publishing biased polls to boost Capriles Radonsky and the rest? Never in a thousand years!
Félix Seijás of IVAD is also accused or being too close to the government.
You are correct. Tom has to tell us what polls he thinks are the most accurate and then we can compare the result after the Sunday elections.
If NAOR is right so be it. Then Tom can cry “fraud” which, if the truth be known, is the only recourse the opposition has left.
In fact, these elections will pale into insignificance when we approach the AN elections next year. These are far more important.
C’mon, Tom, tell us which company is the most accurate in the context of these regional elections. I can hardly wait to start laughing.
thanks Carlos,
I live in Syria(in the middle east) so it’s easy to get the info but it’s really hard to know wich info to belive.
so 20 state for the PSUV, that’s what am gonna tell everyone